The title of this post is the headline out this morning from the Council of Leading US Economists (C.L.U.E. for short).
According to the organization, C.L.U.E.’s prediction is based on their latest research model.
Will the Dow hit six figures while Trump is still in office, or is this another example of the never in doubt but often wrong career affliction, Strategist Analysis Disorder, otherwise known as S.A.D.?
I’m not sure, but might investors exposed to this, and many other emotionally charged projections and New New Thing investment models, benefit by keeping in mind a healthy dose of the advice that Pasty gave to King Arthur, Galahad and Lancelot?
Camelot, Camelot, Camelot – It’s Only A Model
Okay, yes, this post is my poor attempt at an April Fool’s Day joke (hopefully at least the video will bring a smile or two).
To my knowledge, the Council of Leading US Economists does not exist and no one has made a prediction that the DJIA will hit 100,000 during the Trump administration.
As many have written before, however, emotionally charged market headlines and prognostications (especially at quarter end) are no joke.
For more on my sometimes tongue in cheek takes on “analysts’ forecasts [that] have been almost 100 percent too high” or the “spectacular zero” percent track record of Wall Street accurately predicting downturns, read the following:
Should You Treat More Wall Street Forecasts April Fool’s Jokes?