Stocks Are Risky – This is Not the New Normal, It is The Normal The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has dropped hundreds of points and has recently created alarming news headlines. This has not made any investor that I know feel good, but was this “The Normal?” Yes, this is a reference to “The … More The Normal
If you look up the definition of “disconnected,” you will find the word “incoherent” among its synonyms. Being “disconnected” sounds negative and, in fact, people are often ridiculed for not being “connected.” In keeping with the title of my website blog, I’m posting this provoking question. Are we more coherent when we are disconnected? I … More Disconnected or Connected?
The title of this piece comes from a recent Josh Brown article titled, Delusions and Entitlement (he deserves full credit for this quip). In his post, Josh said the following: “There’s this idea floating around out in the ether that, for some reason, public equity markets are expensive but private market valuations will serve as an … More Stop It
“Honey, I need to go.” When I woke up my wife to tell her this, it was still dark outside on Sunday, September 14th 2008. I had finally gotten at least a little sleep, after many calls and emails on Saturday had given me at least a little hope that my firm, Lehman Brothers, might … More The Good Story
Private Equity vs. Index Funds Updated 3/21/19 This past week, I posted a blog about how the presentation of private equity returns can sometimes be inflated and hence might create confusion when comparing them to public market returns. I will admit that the title was somewhat click baitish (Fake News?), but the post was meant … More Betting Like Buffett
Are some investors placing votes in favor of private equity based on returns that might be considered fake news? According to a recent McKinsey & Company Global Private Equity Review, in 2017 private investment managers raised a record sum of nearly $750 billion globally. A few factors are driving this, but one is the strong … More Fake News?
Recently, I noticed a Tweet from Josh Brown (like me, a Reformed Broker) and a follow-on note from Dan Egan, who I had the pleasure of working with in the past at a brokerage firm (maybe he should be called the Reformed Behaviorist). Both focused on how incentives and stimuli can influence investor behavior. It … More Pavlov’s Brokers
Based on My True Stories, I’ll Let You Decide While surfing Twitter recently, I noticed another long debate about the difference between passive and active investment management. When the debate turned to the meaning and use of the words “active” and “passive, I chimed in by sharing a brief tale of time I spent at … More Who Is Passive?
Are you ready for the big game? The poised Boston champion Pats vs. City of Brotherly Love, Rocky-like underdog Eagles. Beyond the entertainment of the Super Bowl, the NFL runs a business that generates exceptional returns. If marketing is your game, you could do a lot worse than to follow the lead of the NFL. … More Don’t Let Your Portfolio Get Sacked – Version LII
“A spectacular zero” and advice from Janet Yellen At the end of this post, I’ll explain the picture above and the advice Janet Yellen gave me. To start, though, most people know that I run an investment advisory firm and that, in the past, I held senior positions inside large Wall Street firms, giving advice … More Why I Don’t Make Forecasts