Why I Don’t Make Forecasts

“A spectacular zero” and advice from Janet Yellen At the end of this post, I’ll explain the picture above and the advice Janet Yellen gave me.  To start, though, most people know that I run an investment advisory firm and that, in the past, I held senior positions inside large Wall Street firms, giving advice … More Why I Don’t Make Forecasts

April Fool’s Day Forecasts?

Are Wall Street, and even Federal Reserve, forecasts often about as accurate as April Fool’s Day jokes? Unfortunately, yes, sometimes the might make you smile. This week I was fortunate enough to attend a private reception and then a lunch with Janet Yellen at the Economic Club of New York.  The experience and debate of … More April Fool’s Day Forecasts?

Chair Yellen – Direct and Clear – Risks of Not Meeting Inflation Targets Are Higher Than Exceeding Them

At lunchtime yesterday, I was fortunate to hear Chair Janet Yellen speak at the Economic Club of New York. Much is in the paper about her talk and I have seen quite a few posts on the internet.  I am not a Federal Reserve (Fed) commentator by any standard, but I did want to at … More Chair Yellen – Direct and Clear – Risks of Not Meeting Inflation Targets Are Higher Than Exceeding Them